Appraising the Value of the Internet for Ministry
David W. Hall
Extracted from Ordained Servant vol. 5, no. 3 (July 1996).
“The computer power in the average 1996 Ford Taurus is greater than the computer power in Neil Armstrong’s Apollo 11”—President Bill Clinton, June 3, 1996 (commencement address to Princeton University)
Perhaps the hype has already peaked—or is about to peak—in regard to the virtually eschatological claims for the internet as a tool of ministry. Ranging from one of the great high priests of secularism, John Perry Barlow—former lyricist for the Grateful Dead—to Gary North—the warrior poet of theonomy—the hyperbolic claims for the internet as a categorically new and paradigm-altering tool may be about hyped-out. Such lavish appraisals not-withstanding, Christians may find themselves nearly as skeptical about such grandiose technological allegations as they are unpersuaded that every purported social crisis is indeed a crisis. In what follows below, I wish to bring a little sanity to the discussion and also summarize four compelling reasons to drive onto the information ramp.
First, let me assess the development of the internet according to a few distinct phases. Started by an obscure military-scientific working group in 1973, from its inception in 1973 to 1990, the internet was the sole possession of the wonk illuminati. Very few people outside of military or scientific fields knew about the internet in the 1970s and 1980s. Even that visionary vice-President, Al Gore, did not start pushing the “information superhighway” until the early 1990s. Phase One of the internet was its Laboratory Phase, characterized by elite users, multiple glitches, little popular access, small scope of information, huge investment of time for minimal results, and little graphical presentation. In sum, Phase One was available to the very few and enticing to few others except among the expert classes. Phase Two (1991-1995) can be viewed as the Mass Introductory Phase. During this period, most of the commercial on-line services commenced (AOL, CIS, Prodigy) and commercial internet service providers (ISP) began. By 1992, the total number of users, however, for all these combined services was less than 2 million (less than 1% of the U. S. population). By 1993, the online services began to grow and email became popular. CompuServe took the lead, quickly surpassing Prodigy in terms of customers. By the end of 1993, CIS had what appeared to be a commanding lead, then boasting of 2 million users, with AOL at a distant second place with a half million. Email was the main draw, the World Wide Web largely remaining a text-based phenomena by the end of 1993. Total users of early forms of the WWW were about 4 million at the end of 1993, a hearty increase of 100% in a single year. However, less than a million users trafficked the superhighway, and those still predominantly the elite.
The years 1994 and 1995 would see tremendous expansion among users. By mid 1995, there were 68 million customers from the major commercial services, AOL having grown to dominance. By 1995, AOL had 4 million subscribers, leaving CIS at 2.5 million. Prodigy and other minor players would soon be absorbed. It was in 1994-1995 that many customers began to exit these commercial services for full internet service providers. In 1994 all metropolitan areas still did not have affordable ISPs, but they all did by 1995. In 1995, the predictions were that over 5 million users would be on line, a figure which was supposed to grow to 20-25 million by the year 2000.
Once again, the estimates proved far too cautious. By mid 1996, according to one report, there were 23.5 WWW users (nearly 10% of U. S. population—a ten-fold increase in four years). The number of home pages had grown from 8 million in May, 1995 to 35 million in May, 1996—an increase of approximately 450%— enough to make even the most frothy church growth projectors envious. Phase Two climaxed in late 1995 symbolized by everybody and his brother—only the most unprogressive among us excluded—finding themselves online. Several key factors explain the surge of use and the growth ahead.
Reduction of Rates: Go Market, Go
Not accidentally, Phase Three (1996- )—the era of Market-driven Access—was a free market phenomena. Two trends (a third one possibly being peer pressure) accelerated internet use and the transition away from commercial services toward full internet service providers. The first trend was the vast improvement in graphics-based Web browsers and software. With the advent, first of Mosaic and later of Netscape, users of the WWW finally found some user-friendly presentations. The days of text-based commands and key-strokes yielded to the icon and the mouse. With more intuitive and simpler browsers, the WWW was much more attractive to the non-expert. The second trend was the reduction in cost. The average cost per hour for either email, internet surfing, teleconferencing, or serious research dropped astronomically. The chart below illustrates the best rates. (Note: commercial service rates were all higher in per/hour cost than full internet providers for more than 8 hrs/month.):
1994
15 hrs. 32.95 (= $2.20/hr.)
30 hrs. (= $1.85/hr.)
50 hrs. (= $1.61/hr.)
100 hrs. (= $1.60/hr.)
1995
15 hrs. 19.95 (= $1.33/hr.)
30 hrs. (= $1.17/hr.)
50 hrs. (= $1.10/hr.)
100 hrs. (= $1.05/hr.)
1996
(Note: this schedule assumes $19.95 for unlimited use)
15 hrs. 19.95 (= $1.33/hr.)
30 hrs. (= $0.67/hr.)
50 hrs. (= $0.40/hr.)
100 hrs. (= $0.20/hr.)
The pricing declines for comparative periods may be clearly seen from the above. The internet had become affordable. For high users in the span of months, the cost for 30 hr/month users had dropped from $1.85/hr. down to $0.67/hr.; for users of 50 hr/month, the charges had been cut four-fold, from $1.61/hr. to $0.40/hr.; and the heaviest users saw prices plummet from $1.60 per/hr. to a mere 20 cents an hour! For less than a quarter (price of one phone call, a third of a Coke, one photocopy, or two pieces of gum), one could email hundreds of thousands of customers, FTP thousands of pages, download software that only a decade ago was available only to the highest levels of diplomats, search sophisticated data bases for obscure theological material, or post hundreds of pages of text. All for the price of gum, fraction of a Coke, or a phone call. This meant that even small churches or individuals could become publishers. During 1995-1996, many discovered that opportunity. However, that was only the beginning of Phase Three—Market Access. The first half of 1996 saw massive invasion on the internet. A few observations below illustrate.
Change in Past Two Years
When our small group first jumped into the web, we found very few other reformed or evangelical voices. Search as we might, there were few biblical voices echoing throughout the WWW. The great news, however, is that 24 months later, we now find a lot of friends. Whole denominations and organizations are now available to witness to those within and without the Christian community. One of our ministries, The Kuyper Institute (), specializes in political analysis from a distinctively biblical point of view. To our surprise in 1994, we could not find any of the following much-larger Christian ministries on the WWW: Family Research Council, Focus on the Family, American Family Association, Coral Ridge Ministries, Christian Coalition, the 700 Club Liberty University, Eagle Forum. All of these ministries were proven in this area, and yet as we emailed briefings during the fall of 1994 on key races—when timely information was important—we had to use U. S. Postal service to mail hardcopies to our other friends and colleagues above. Now, however, in 1996 it is an entirely different story. All of the above are on line, most with very fine WWW sites. The company, besides being welcome, illustrates the rush toward the net in the past two years. We’ve watched as numerous seminaries came on line. Early on, we tried to entice the leading evangelical seminaries to jump on line for academic research and publication of journals. In 1994, none of the following leading evangelical seminaries were on line: Dallas, Trinity, Gordon-Conwell, Westminster (Philadelphia), Westminster (CA), Reformed (Jackson, Charlotte, or Orlando), Covenant. Now all are on in some form, with the Dallas, Westminster, and Reformed Seminary home pages leading the pack.
Still, there is much development that will occur in the next five years. Most leading Christian Colleges now have some internet presence, whereas only a few did two years ago. The same is true for individual churches. Our small denomination had two or three churches with home pages two years ago. Now, that number is approaching 100 (8%). Other denominations confirm similar trends. Regarding publications, many Christian publications are just now coming on line (see our e-zine, Premise, now in its third year at: http://capo.org/, for example). The rapid invasion of the internet by evangelical groups is thrilling. Gospel Light has an excellent site and Quentin Schultze’s Internet for Christians site is consistently on the cutting edge. Only recently has the “Best of the Christian Web” developed. Earlier and still, ICL has a fine catalogue.
Technical and commercial developments in past few months alone are equally stunning. Eastman Kodak recently announced a digital camera (which will aid the graphics for any site) for $350, and top-flight computer systems are available for $1500-$1800. In the past quarter, large telephone companies have announced commercial plans. When AT&T offered unlimited service for $19.95/month, they were swamped and to date have still only been able to actually provide service to 400,000 new customers, sending many prospective customers to other internet providers. June 1, 1996 PacTelesis announced unlimited service for $19.95/month. 1996 also saw the cable companies begin forays into providing service, with many more to follow. The tools and software, e. g., HomesiteX (an html editor that allows editing on the fly), new versions of Netscape Navigator, faster modems, and more T-3 connections further enhanced access. New plug and play software packages lent themselves to non-wonks coming on line. And the development of Java script appears to be the next rage.
Another factor that may be a leading indicator is the success of internet-related IPOs offered on the NYSE over the past 12 months. Since late summer of 1995, Netscape, Yahoo, Point Cash Systems, and other stock offerings have far surpassed any expectations. Setting new records for opening prices or increases, the market at least is investing heavily in these new companies. Conversely, the non-survivors litter the info super highway. Among the cyber road kill are: Delphi, Prodigy; and the MSN internet software and Compuserve are in the danger zone. Even the leading commercial service for the past two years, AOL (which added as many subscribers in one year as CIS had total), recently confirmed a decrease in projections for the summer quarter ‘96 from 700,000 to 400,000. If even the best commercial service is halving its estimates for new subscribers, that is worthy of analysis. The explanation is likely that more people are moving to/signing up with full internet service providers. The net (pun unintended) result of all this was that millions of people were coming on line in droves. Rather than taking until the year 2000 to reach the 25 million user-level, that plateau would probably be passed in 1996. Internet service providers would surpass the commercial providers, leading to yet more price reductions in the future. With the cost decreasing and the ease of use increasing, the WWW was headed for perhaps a 50% market share by the year 2000. By that, I mean that likely half of the U. S. population (125 M) would have access by 2000. How could a visionary Christian or Church ignore such a community that could be reached so inexpensively? In light of the above review, perhaps it would help to identify categories of users.
Categories of Users
1) End-user only. These can probably stick with AOL (5 million subscribers) or CIS (2.5 million) These ever-adapting services bring some order to chaos for the non-expert; they also house a number of fine proprietary sources and offer chat-sessions or tailored-ministry needs. Even though the per/ hour cost will remain higher than an ISP, these will assist the family-emailer, the occasional surfer, and beginners. In time, many may switch, but this is not a bad starting point, and the basic charge of $9.95/ month requires little investment. We recommend that ministries without access to technical support begin here. If after 6 months, you are satisfied, this option may be right for you. (Requirements: tools available at WalMart: modem (28.8), 486 or greater, Windows 95, subscription to AOL or CIS).
2) Researchers (occasional), communicators (news-letters, periodicals), occasional publisher. This is the person/ministry who is beyond email. This person wants to access a number of publications, communicate with a large number of users, and inexpensively publish sermons, newsletters, small books, studies, essays, or other material—scholarly or practical; perhaps complete a degree on-line. (Requirements for little interactivity, minimum graphics, some knowledge of html, inexpensive access: Pentium chip, 100 mhz, 1 g storage, 28.8 modem, Windows 95, internet provider [$19.95/mo.] Netscape Navigator, Pegasus Mail).
3) Organizational use, professional research, publication. This ministry has numerous facets, multiple publishing opportunities, many collegial contributors, and ongoing research needs. Few local churches will need this, although some will be able to justify it. Every Christian institution of education will need these for the 21st century. (Requirements for much interactivity, as-graphic-as-you-wannabe, working knowledge of html, full access: Pentium chip, 133 mhz, 1.6 g storage, 28.8 modem, Windows 95, internet provider ($19.95/mo), Netscape Navigator, Pegasus Mail). These three categories will probably remain fairly constant in the era of Market Access. The four uses below will further clarify what best fits your needs; but first a little computer-aided prognostication.
What’s Ahead
Playing the prophet for the internet may be nearly as risky as seeking to predict events in ancient Israel. We certainly don’t wish to subject ourselves to those standards. However, we are aware of a few trends on the horizon that do not require prophetic insight to mention. One of the greatest inchoate improvements is increasing bandwidth. Presently, modems are hooked up to telephone wires. As ISDN becomes more affordable and as cable companies begin to offer wide bandwidth, visual communications and large amounts of content will flow more quickly. Such exponential increase, according to George Gilder, will yield a new era of growth on the internet. (cf. George Gilder’s Telecosm at: http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/ggindex.html) TV channels and movies will be available over same network. In time, the home terminal will be something like Gateway’s new 35” monitor that doubles (quadruples?) as a TV screen, computer terminal, and online terminal. All manners of entertainment, communication, and information will be available from one screen. Missions agencies can already provide email, teleconferencing, sophisticated accounting, studies, reports, continuing education, and news to keep foreign missionaries current—for pennies.
Decreasing prices should continue, although they will bottom out fairly soon. AOL has announced a heavy-user price-break for mid-summer 1996 and CIS’ WOW! Service will be priced at $17.95/month. Already the industry standard is $19.95/month for full access. Some areas have competitors offering full access at $17.95 or $15.95/month. AOL and CIS will have to lower their prices (as will other new providers), or face certain death. It is not unrealistic to expect $9.95/ month full access pricing—which will even further accelerate use. Newer models of computers and soft ware will have more built-in capability for easy internet use. Last year the prediction for a computer in the year 2000 was: 600 MHz, with 64 megs of memory and nearly a gig of storage, with a modem zooming at close to 100 million bps (WSJ, R6, June 19, 1995). Again those predictions are dated in less than 12 months. In less than two years, most computers will be armed with more WWW savvy than 99% of the population had in 1995.
With market forces at work, even the dumb and dumber among us will hop on. Speaking of which, dumb terminals will be available for about $500 within a year. A dumb terminal will make the net even affordable for those without expensive personal computers. A dumb terminal requires virtually no memory and is a shell of a computer. With inexpensive internet connections, the user then connects, downloads only the software needed for the specific task (from the web), completes the task, then throws away the software—greatly reducing the need for a large computer brain. With affordable dumb terminals, a person can plug in anywhere, download what he needs, and go. The next five years will also see the continuation of the astronomical growth of users. Last year’s predictions are already outdated; so would any we could make. Some will even give up on these new technologies in frustration, but return in a few years when things are easier. As price and ease continue to move in positive directions, users will increase.
Likely before too long, some master organizational scheme will be developed to more easily orient new users. One of the largest frustrations of the WWW—the difficulty in providing an organizational matrix for virtual-chaos—will eventually yield to order. Some company will become the “Netscape” of order and make a bundle.
Also on the horizon is inexpensive conferencing and education. Publications, schools, and many other traditional institutions are truly threatened by these innovations. The average 6th grader now has access to information that only Presidents once had. A motivated sophomore in college has access to graduate-level data. Smaller ministries can be on par, and members are finding that hierarchies or privileged information is going the way of the dinosaur. A strong democratizing dynamic is at work to make affordable what was once elite. For example, we hope to develop a journal of the future that will open up to a regular user (or a dumb terminal) and simultaneously do the following: A person will see a short, high-quality video on the subject (with links to 3-4 other more informative videos on related subjects), while an audio review of some other field is running. At the same time, an automatic email or fax of selected news events will be triggered, while the user’s computer also downloads several studies automatically. Each of these features is further linked to other resources and message-with-presentation will dominate. Affinity ministries will be tied in by links; from a computer terminal a user can have at their fingertips the best of present and past Christianity.
Conclusion
The internet is also the wave of the future with a definite generational dynamic. Very few users were born prior to 1940 (92% of users are under 40). Like it or not, it is largely a baby-boom tool. A few more mature evangelical scholars use email and do some research on the web; but not many. Nearly all professors, however, in secular or university situations are already acquainted with these powerful research tools. Will theologians be left in the dark ages? Perhaps. Even more promising, however, are the opportunities for biblical pastors and Christian scholars to get on the net, show some leadership, learn some new tools, and bring ‘salt and light’ to the web. Baby boomers will become increasingly comfortable with such technologies. Their children will use them as reflexively as breathing. Shall we lose the next two generations by default? Many churches in the past century sought to be relevant. Unfortunately, many of them became relativistic in meaning instead of in mode. The internet has enormous potential to avoid that trap. One way is to retain orthodox content, but use new medium. These tools—contrary to deconstructionism—are fundamentally logocentric. We have home court advantage (Jn. 1:1); content will be king in the end. After a while, even with enormous information available, an ideological construct is needed for analysis and meaning. Christianity will always be superior in that regard. The Word will triumph in the end. The era of geek-oidal experimentation is over (1990). The age of elitism and experts is fading (1990-1995). The era of wide use is beginning. And in that environment, accurate, rational, and lasting thought will win out. Does the world have better ideas? No, it’s just ahead of us in the tools right now. But we’ll catch up. In closing there are four compelling reasons to begin internet ministries. Depending on other factors (technical assistance, economics, giftedness, desire, vision), these four reasons match the goals of our internet ministry below. Four compelling reasons to get on the highway are:
- The WWW offers an inexpensive and timely mass-communication tool;
- The WWW offers high quality and quantity research data;
- The WWW can drastically reduce the price of quality/ quantity publishing;
- The WWW will be second nature to the next generations. Those not conversant may be left behind. Our goals, therefore, are to help: Every church/ ministry improve its communication with users (email for church members soon); Every church be an educator (access to seminaries, bible colleges, journals, etc.; also its own materials) Every church/ ministry a publisher; Every church/ministry a discipler: there’s a new generation to reach. We hope these four compelling reasons and four goals will help Christians clarify their own needs in light of the categories of users above.
We are indebted to Dr. David W. Hall for this article. He is associated with The Kuyper Institute, 190 Manhattan Ave. Oak Ridge, TN 37830, (615) 483-9888 voice (615) 483-5581 fax. URL: http://capo.org/. This article was used with permission and was reprinted from Premise3:6 (July 1996).